Lately this blog has felt more like a time capsule, capturing my thoughts at any given moment in time. Elections are a massive tipping point in history (in the sense that a major change happens based on a single result, marking a stark change), so it seems like a good time to capture those thoughts just a week out.

Unprecedented

It’s overdone and cliche to say it, but this election feels unprecedented. With a former president back for more, January 6 and election denial, multiple impeachment attempts, the assassination attempt, Joe Biden stepping down, and potentially the first female president—it’s been a rollercoaster. We always say this is the most consequential election—I’m pretty sure I said it in 2016, 2018, and 2020—and yep, this one feels like it too.

What Do You Think Will Happen?

Living through 2016 has tempered any expectations or sense that I know what’s going to happen. But still…

• The wave of Democrat momentum that started when Biden stepped down and Kamala Harris stepped up has only seemed to increase. I think she’s going to win. I think she could win big.
• But 2016… Yeah, I know. That’s what gives me heartburn. But there are so many Republicans who have endorsed Harris and so many former Donald Trump staffers who have endorsed her or refused to endorse him, it just feels like that has to make a huge difference. Also, if a Democrat can’t beat someone in those circumstances, what are they doing?
• The issues all seem to go in her favor. January 6 and election denial, plus Trump’s felonies and court cases—I think people are tired of the drama. Abortion is a huge one on the ballot. The economy seems to be a Trump strength, but the more he talks about tariffs, the less helpful that seems to be. Immigration is another potential strength, and I’m shocked Democrats haven’t hammered Trump more or forced an answer from him in the debates on killing the border bill. Even the seeming Republican strengths are going down in racist flames as this nativist, nationalist agenda permeates the right.
• Locally I’ve got pretty sleepy races on my ballot. The top of the ticket (president) and the bottom of the ticket (soil & water supervisor) seem like the most hotly contested races—and I know quite a bit about soil & water, it’s the most popular race on West St. Paul Reader. I think I know what’s going to happen there, but I can see a potential upset. The energy and turnout is what will be interesting. Lots of energy nationally, but not much locally. Uncontested races are not good for democracy, and we’re seeing that lack of impact locally. I don’t think it will have any huge impact this year, but it’s worrying.

If Harris Wins…

I see a number of potential opportunities and dangers in a potential Kamala Harris presidency…

• First, the ultimate glass ceiling of the first female president. I think that’s a huge moment, and it feels like it hasn’t been talked about. I don’t know if having the first female vice president (which has also felt like no big deal) has tempered the excitement or if it feels too awkward to talk about that milestone so people avoid it? But it’s a huge milestone. I remember eight years ago when my daughter was absolutely incredulous when she learned a woman had never served as U.S. president. It’s time. (It’s past time.)
• The dangers are what kind of election denial will crop up this time. It depends on how close the race is and where, but I don’t think Republicans have a great path to contest the race or not certify the election like they did in 2020. But it wouldn’t take much to create chaos and sow fear and mistrust. I’m not sure a result like the 2000 race would go down well in this environment. Looking back, it’s kind of incredible how peaceful that transition was—that the American people for the most part accepted the Supreme Court decision. That wouldn’t happen today.
• And after January 20, are we able to turn the corner on the Trump era? Will he go away? I’m guessing not. I don’t think he’d run again, but I think he’ll continue to have an outsized influence on the Republican party and our politics in general. I’m not sure if the various court cases will even be able to put some of that to rest.
• And what can Harris accomplish? This is all pretty dependent on where Congress lands after the election. This is where presidential campaigns are frustrating. You can make all the bold promises you want, but you have to get them through Congress. (And that’s where pushback on Harris has been frustrating—why hasn’t she done all she’s promised? Sure, she’s only vice president, but more importantly, it’s a divided Congress—they can’t do anything.) Harris has had very strong language on defense, and I expect Israel/Gaza and any potential hotspots around the world to create potential rifts among Democrats. Much like Barack Obama, Harris would have a lot to prove and will likely spark a conservative backlash.
• Local angle: If Harris wins, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is vice president, which means Minnesota gets its first ever female and native governor in Peggy Flanagan. That’s a huge milestone, another one that’s long overdue. It will also set up a very interesting governor’s race in 2026. Of course Republican efforts in Minnesota have been meh statewide for a decade or so, but a Native American governor might look like a tempting target.

If Trump Wins…

And because of 2016, what will things be like if Trump wins? Oof.

• Buckle up. I think Trump’s first presidency was marked by distractions, incompetence, and self-defeating gestures. There were also adults in the room to keep things on track. I think all bets will be off this time around. We’ll still have plenty of incompetence and mistakes, because Trump can’t seem to not do those things, but I think we’ll also see a much more focused agenda. Democrats have made much of Project 2025 and Trump has tried to distance himself from it. But if he wins? A lot of Republicans seem eager to dismantle government and there’s a plan to do it. Trump long wanted to shut down the Affordable Care Act but he never could, mostly because he had no plan to replace it (and how does he still not have a plan?!). With Project 2025, it seems like there’s a blueprint to do a lot.
• As I said above, Trump is such a flawed candidate, if Democrats can’t beat him, I don’t know where you go next. I would expect a lot of Democrat turmoil and more infighting between the left-wing progressives and more moderate Democrats. That fault line will get pretty stark. The Democratic tent feels pretty big right now. If that’s not enough to win? I’m not sure it gets bigger—I’d expect it to splinter.
• Another Trump victory would give a sense of approval to all the hate, racism, lies, and ugly rhetoric that has characterized his campaign. I think that would spark a reckoning. Once is an aberration, but twice? If we accept all that, what does it do to our national character? I firmly believe the evangelical embrace of Trump is already a stain that will haunt the church for a generation. If we double down on that? Yikes.
• What will it mean for democracy? In a sense, many of these court cases will go away and election denial is no big deal. It won’t matter because they won. (Never understood Republicans who claim fraud kept Trump from the presidency but gave them their seats.) I think we’ll see a normalization of might is right and a movement away from basic norms of democratic fairness.
• Finally, what will Trump accomplish? Again, it depends on where Congress lands after the election. Though if Trump wins, it seems hard to believe Democrats would hold either chamber. While split power might hamper him somewhat, I’d expect full control. And none of the shambling of 2017—full throated, full speed ahead. I’d expect a couple Supreme Court justices to resign and be replaced with much younger justices.

So We Vote

All that to say, no one knows what’s going to happen. It’s why we vote. So get out there and take part.